Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Pistacia atlantica in the Central Zagros

Predicting the potential distribution of plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. This study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Pistacia atlantica in Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari province in the central Zagros region. In this study, we used 19 Bioclimatic variables derived from rainfall and temperature and three physiographical variables as the input of maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results showed that annual precipitation, annual temperature range and seasonal temperature have played the most important role in habitat suitability of this species. The results of the model showed that 14.7%, (2413.7 km2) of in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province for the Pistacia atlantica have had high habitat suitability. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, Pistacia atlantica might lose (Respectively 8.11% and 11%) of its climatically suitable habitats due to climate change factors by 2050. Considering the high accuracy of the maximum entropy model in predicting the distribution of the studied species (AUC = 0.92), results of this study can be used in planning, conservation and rehabilitation of Pistacia atlantica.